Here’s my reasoned Trump prediction, but first:
I’ve been publicly wrong before, as regarding, for example, something as important as Russia versus Ukraine.
I realize there’s a different law for rich and poor: No way could anybody I know get as many delays as Trump is getting.
I realize, from the essays by George Orwell, that people tend to think they are making reasonable predictions but in fact be accidentally biased by their beliefs and hopes. He would write his predictions down so he couldn’t escape self-knowledge. Luckily I’m nobody so I can safely make a public prediction.
As I write this experts are saying it is very probable that none of the four criminal trial will end before the presidential election—they haven’t even started yet—and, furthermore, that is very likely that if elected then Trump will make the trials and charges disappear in various ways, including but not limited to pardoning himself. And we all know the free and the brave would allow this.
And besides, being rich, experts say that, if guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, Trump would get a fine or probation, but not jail time. Even though he would be safe in jail with his Secret Service protection—working in shifts, no way would they do much time in jail.
“They say” the odds are fifty-fifty as to who gets into the White House. So it is reasonable for the world and the US to be on tenderhooks, in a state of nerves, over the issues.
All that being said, my prediction is: The election won’t be close. Why?
Secondly, because I suspect, for Trump lovers, it will be like the old death penalty debate in Canada and the UK, where people would say publicly “Hanging’s too good for them!” and then, in the lonely responsibility of the voting booth, decline to allow capital punishment.
I expect Trump will lose the election, face trials, and then the MAGA hysteria will vanish as rapidly as the witch hunts of the 1950’s.
Firstly, because my favourite republican and former state governor, Arnold Swartzeneggar, said months ago that Trump would not get re-elected. And I have great faith in “the governator’s” horse sense.
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Sean Crawford
North of Missoula
Ides of March
2024
More Data, One Day Later: A it happens, Arizona is perhaps the most republican state of them all. Nevertheless, the Guardian reports that the public rejected republican politicians known to be an “election denier.” (i.e. believing that 2020 results are false, that it was “stolen”)
